51.2 Million Measles Cases, 159,200 Deaths: New Study Warns Of Surge In Preventable Diseases Amid Growing Vaccine Skepticism
A new study has warned that declining childhood vaccination rates in the United States could trigger a dramatic resurgence of diseases that were eradicated years ago.
What Happened: On Sunday, former U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Scott Gottlieb shared a study on X highlighting the consequences of America’s turn towards vaccine skepticism, and a policy framework that is increasingly enabling the same.
While sharing a study titled Modeling Reemergence of Vaccine-Eliminated Infectious Diseases Under Declining Vaccination, Gottlieb quotes from it, saying, “at current vaccination rates, measles may become endemic again.”
See Also: Elizabeth Warren Calls It ‘Textbook Corruption,’ Once Again Asks For Probe Into Elon Musk ‘Cashing In’ On Trump Tariffs
He highlighted the staggering projections from the study, “51.2 [million] measles cases over a 25-year period, 9.9 [million] rubella cases, 4.3 [million] poliomyelitis cases, 197 diphtheria cases, 10.3 [million] hospitalizations, and 159,200 deaths.”
The Stanford University study’s projections are based on a scenario in which vaccine uptake drops 50%, at which point it finds that measles alone could reach endemic levels within just 5 years.
Even at current vaccination levels, the study estimates an 83% chance of measles returning to endemicity within two decades.
The study also projects 9.9 million rubella cases, 4.3 million polio cases, and nearly 11,000 instances of congenital rubella syndrome in the event of steep declines in vaccination. The forecast includes as many as 5,400 cases of paralytic polio, a disease declared eliminated in the U.S. in 1979.
These findings come amid rising anti-vaccine sentiments in the country, alongside proposed policy rollbacks on vaccine mandates.
Why It Matters: The Health and Human Services Secretary (HHS), Robert F. Kennedy Jr, has come under increasing scrutiny for spreading vaccine misinformation.
Last week, a senior vaccine official at the FDA, Peter Marks, resigned from his position, while accusing Kennedy of actions that were harmful to public health.
This also comes amid extensive budget and job cuts at the federal healthcare department, which includes the FDA, the National Institute of Health, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which could impair the ability of these agencies to perform their tasks effectively.
See Also:
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
