Trump vs. Musk: Betting Markets Anticipate Next Move in Musk-Trump Feud, Predict Low Chances of Musk Forming Political Party

In the latest development in the feud between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, betting markets have started speculating on the potential outcomes.

What Happened: The disagreement between Trump and Musk, a key supporter of the Republican party in the 2024 presidential race, has intensified. The contention revolves around Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” legislation that Musk fears could have a detrimental effect on the national debt.

Online betting platforms like Polymarket are being utilized to forecast the feud’s trajectory, including the probability of a meeting between the two before the year concludes.

Polymarket traders anticipate a 57% chance of a meeting by year-end, but only a 14% chance by June 30 and a 31% chance by July 31.

Also Read: Anthony Scaramucci Tells Musk To ‘Stick To Business’ — Here’s Musk’s Musical Response

According to Newsweek, competing betting site Kalshi assigns a 56% chance of Trump and Musk communicating before July. The probability of Trump being suspended from X by next Friday is low at only 1.7%, as per Polymarket.

William Hill, another betting market, predicts a slightly higher chance of Trump being banned from X during his second term at around 40%. The likelihood of Musk unfollowing Trump on social media is also low, with Polymarket estimating it at 19% and Kalshi at 33%.

Polymarket also forecasts a low probability of Musk establishing a new political party, with a 7% chance by the end of June and a 22% chance by the end of the year. The prospect of a truce between the two by July is also seen as unlikely, with a 33% chance.

According to Kalshi, the odds of Musk rejoining the Trump administration are low at approximately 16%.

Why It Matters: The feud between Musk and Trump has been a topic of public interest, with its potential impact on political and economic landscapes.

The betting markets’ predictions provide an insight into public sentiment and expectations regarding the feud’s future.

The speculation also highlights the influence of high-profile individuals like Musk and Trump on public discourse and policy-making.