Bipolar Market Rips Higher On False Hope – NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)

Here We Go Again 

Warren Buffett’s mentor Benjamin Graham famously described the stock market as a mentally ill man (“Mr. Market”) who toggled between euphoria and despair. There’s an additional twist today, with Wall Street leaning left. Investment professionals on our X Market Watchers list alternate between rage against Trump and contempt for him. 

We saw that today, as markets ripped higher after hours on President Trump’s comments. ZeroHedge led with the news that Trump said he wouldn’t fire Fed Chairman Powell. But on our Market Watchers list, the focus was on tariffs. On Monday, they railed against Trump for wrecking the economy (as they saw it) with tariffs; on Tuesday, they mocked him for signaling some flexibility on them. 

Tuesday’s Contempt For Trump

Here’s a small sample from our Market Watchers list: 

They looked you in the face and said it was Main Street’s turn

Then the The Treasury Secretary held a closed door meeting with Wall Street and said he “expected the situation to de-escalate” a day before Trump capitulated…for nothing in return

— BuccoCapital Bloke (@buccocapital) April 22, 2025

“Trump capitulated” because he said the final tariffs on China are going to be somewhere below 145%? We’ll see.

Maybe Trump’s Critics Are Right

Let’s concede the possibility that Trump is going to completely fold on tariffs. On the one hand, America’s trade deficits have been one of Trump’s two biggest political concerns since at least 1990 (his other concern: avoiding nuclear war). 

Also, Trump’s strongest support today comes from groups that don’t own a lot of stock, like young men (and very young women). 

And, as we saw above, some Wall Streeters have contempt for him. 

On the other hand…what? Trump is going to fold on his goal of reindustrializing America to please them? It’s possible, but we wouldn’t bet on that. Here’s what we have been betting on. 

How We’re Playing The Market Roller Coaster 

Our gameplan has basically been to buy the dips and fade the rallies. That’s what we’ve done so far this week. 

On Monday, when the market tanked, we took profits on a couple of our bearish big tech bets:

Options

1. Puts on Apple, Inc. AAPL. Bought for $1.81 on 4//14/2025; sold for $2.71 on 4/21/2025. Profit: 50%.
2. Puts on Nvidia Corporation NVDA. Bought for $1.56 on 4/9/2025; sold for $4.02 on 4/21/2025. Profit: 158%.

And added a couple of bullish bets on Bitcoin-related names. 

One of those bullish bets was on Semler Scientific, Inc. SMLR, a profitable medical tech company that borrowed Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Balance Sheet strategy. SMLR closed up 11.57% on Tuesday. 

On Tuesday, when the market rallied, we added bearish bets against two of the main vendors used by American small businesses that import from China. 

If the market rallies again on Wednesday, we’ll be adding more short exposure. If you want a heads up when we do, you can subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below. 

And if you want to take advantage of the rally to hedge, 

As a reminder, you can download the Portfolio Armor optimal hedging app by aiming your iPhone camera at the QR code below (or by tapping here, if you’re reading this on your phone). Our app can help you find the least expensive hedges given your risk tolerance and time frame.

If you’d like to stay in touch

You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we’re using that for our occasional emails now).