Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA charts versus US crypto reserve rumors — Which to trade?

The cryptocurrency community keenly awaits the first-ever White House Crypto Summit on March 7, which is expected to provide more details on the planned crypto reserve announced by US President Donald Trump on March 2. 

Although the initial announcement included Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA), several critics slammed the idea of adding centralized altcoins alongside Bitcoin in the reserve. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clarified in an interview with The Pavlovic Today that Bitcoin is likely to have a special status in the nation’s crypto reserve.

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said in a March 5 market note that the US crypto reserve “will be nearly entirely Bitcoin, and it will be larger than people think.” He added that similar announcements in other countries will likely follow a US crypto reserve.

The cryptocurrencies proposed to be included in the crypto reserve surged after the announcement but then gave back a large part of their gains. Their weekly charts have been analyzed to avoid the near-term noise. That will help in understanding the levels at which a trending move begins.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin price rebounded from its recent sell-off, and a positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to close below the 20-week exponential moving average ($90,664). This shows that the bulls are active at lower levels.

The bulls will try to strengthen their position by pushing the price above the psychological barrier at $100,000. If they manage to do that, it will clear the path for a retest of the all-time high at $109,588. The sellers will try to defend the $109,588 level, but if the bulls prevail, the BTC/USDT pair could surge to $138,000.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price fails to hold above $100,000, it will suggest that the bears are trying to form a lower high. The pair could then descend to the 50-week simple moving average ($75,543).

Ether price analysis

Ether has formed a large range between $2,111 and $4,094. The price slipped below $2,000 recently, but the long tail on the candlestick shows buying at lower levels.

A weak rebound off the $2,111 level suggests that demand is drying up. That increases the risk of a breakdown below $2,111. If that happens, it will indicate that the ETH/USDT pair may have topped out in the near term. The pair may start a downtrend to $1,500 and then to $1,075.

Buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the moving averages to signal that the range-bound action remains intact. The pair may then climb to the top of the range at $4,094. This is a critical overhead resistance for the bears to defend because a break above it could clear the path for a rally to $4,868 and eventually to the target objective of $6,077.

XRP price analysis

XRP has been consolidating in an uptrend. After a vertical rally, the price generally takes a breather before starting the next trending move.

The XRP/USDT pair has been oscillating between $2 and $3 for several weeks, indicating a tough battle between the bulls and the bears. Sellers are defending the overhead resistance while the bulls are buying near the support. The longer the price remains inside the range, the stronger the eventual breakout from it.

A break and close above $3 will be the first indication that the range has resolved in favor of the bulls. That opens the doors for a possible rally to $4 and then $5. Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below $2, it will indicate that the pair has topped out in the medium term. That heightens the risk of a fall to $1.50.

Related: Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?

Solana price analysis

Solana made a new all-time high on Jan. 19, but that proved to be a bull trap. The price has since been in a firm correction, indicating selling by traders.

The bulls are expected to fiercely defend the $120 to $110 support zone. If they succeed, it will suggest that $110 is the new floor. However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will sell on rallies to the 20-week EMA ($190). If the price turns down from the 20-week EMA, the pair may drop to $110 and swing between these two levels for a few weeks. A break and close below $110 could sink the pair to $80.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-week EMA. There is resistance at $205, but it is likely to be crossed. If that happens, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $260, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense. Buyers will have to achieve a strong close above $260 to signal the start of a new uptrend. 

Cardano price analysis

Cardano has been pinned below the $1.25 level since early 2022, but a minor positive is that the bulls are trying to make a comeback. 

If buyers drive the price above $1.25, the ADA/USDT pair could pick up momentum. Usually, when the price breaks out of a large basing formation, it leads to strong uptrends. The pair may face minor resistance at $1.64, but it is likely to be crossed. The pair could then climb to $2.38.

Alternatively, if the price stays below $1.25, select short-term traders who may have bought at lower levels could be tempted to book profits. That could pull the price to the 50-week SMA ($0.59), which is a necessary support to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the 50-week SMA with strength, the bulls will try to push the pair toward $1.25. The pair may then remain range-bound between the 50-week SMA and $1.25 for a while.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.