Bitcoin Volatility Returns As Altcoin Inflows Stay Low – Calm Before The Storm?

Despite the price drop, new data from CryptoQuant suggests that the overall market may still be resilient. According to the analytics platform, increasing price volatility has not yet translated into a significant spike in inflows to exchanges. This signals that most market participants, particularly long-term holders, are not rushing to sell.

For Bitcoin, holding above the $103.6K support zone remains crucial. If bulls manage to stabilize here, it could set the stage for another push toward the all-time high at $112K. The market now watches closely for either a breakdown or confirmation of support before deciding the next major trend.

Bitcoin Holds Firm Above $100K Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Despite the wave of negative sentiment triggered by renewed conflict in the Middle East, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience by holding firmly above the critical $100,000 mark. The recent escalation between Israel and Iran, coupled with broader macroeconomic fears—including rising inflation and persistent pressure from US Treasury yields—has injected fresh uncertainty into financial markets. Yet, Bitcoin’s ability to absorb the shock and maintain key support levels is a sign of underlying strength in the current cycle.

Many analysts believe that Bitcoin is setting the stage for a major expansion phase. A decisive breakout above the $112K all-time high could launch BTC into price discovery, marking the beginning of an explosive bullish leg. Bulls appear to remain in control, but market participants are cautious given the rising systemic risks globally.

Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, shared timely insights indicating that the recent increase in price volatility has not yet translated into heightened selling activity. Moreno points out that exchange inflows—particularly from altcoins—remain relatively low. This is significant because, historically, local market tops have been preceded by sharp spikes in altcoin deposits to exchanges, signaling investor fear and profit-taking behavior. Currently, that dynamic is absent.

This suggests that the market is not experiencing broad capitulation or panic selling. Instead, long-term holders and large players appear to be sitting tight, positioning for what could be the next leg higher. While risks remain, Bitcoin’s current price action continues to support the thesis of sustained strength and the potential for a breakout rally, provided macro conditions don’t deteriorate further. All eyes now remain on BTC’s ability to reclaim $110K and test the psychological barrier of $112K.

BTC Tests Key Support Zone Below $109K

The daily chart shows Bitcoin consolidating between the $103,600 and $109,300 levels after rejecting the $112K all-time high earlier this month. The recent volatility, triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, caused BTC to drop below the $106K level, briefly tagging the $103,600 support zone. However, buyers quickly stepped in, pushing the price back into the $105K–$106K area.

The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has provided short-term support around $103,400, aligning closely with horizontal demand. Meanwhile, the 100- and 200-day SMAs at $93,966 and $95,650 remain well below the current price, showing that the broader uptrend is intact.

Volume spiked during the drop, hinting at panic selling, but the subsequent recovery suggests strong buying interest near $ 103,000. For bulls to regain control, BTC must reclaim the $109,300 resistance and attempt a breakout toward $112K.

A breakdown below $103,600, however, would invalidate the bullish structure and open the door to a deeper retracement toward the $96K–$98K zone. Until then, BTC remains range-bound within a high-stakes consolidation. A daily close above or below these key levels will likely define Bitcoin’s next directional move. Bulls are holding the line — but for how long?

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView