Bitcoin’s ‘fair value’ could be as high as $230K, Bitwise analysts forecast

Key takeaways:

• Bitwise predicts Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by year-end, with a potential “fair value” of $230,000.

• Trump’s proposed tax cuts and rising US debt position Bitcoin as a hedge against sovereign default risks.

• Bitcoin’s OTT signal suggests strong momentum after a dip to $100,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) could surpass $200,000 by the end of the year and eventually reach its estimated “fair value” of $230,000, according to Bitwise researchers André Dragosch and Ayush Tripathi.

Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is bullish for Bitcoin

In their weekly crypto outlook, Dragosch and Tripathi cite the US’s soaring federal debt and mandatory spending exceeding revenues, exacerbated by Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” tax cuts, as key drivers of their bullish Bitcoin prediction.

The Congressional Budget Office forecasts net interest payments tripling to $3 trillion by 2030, raising default fears.

“Bitcoin’s scarcity and resilience position it uniquely to benefit from both fiscal instability and improving market sentiment,” Bitwise analysts said. If these trends hold, the top crypto could shatter price expectations by year-end.

Related: Bank of Japan pivot to QE may fuel Bitcoin rally — Arthur Hayes

An example of such “sovereign stress” is Bitcoin’s performance in the wake of the Donald Trump-Elon Musk feud last week, driven by the latter’s criticism of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

BTC’s price declined 6% to almost $100,000 amid the spat, only to recover sharply over the weekend.

“Despite a short-lived dip to $100K during the Musk-Trump spat, BTC quickly rebounded on short liquidations,” wrote Bitwise, adding:

“The [bullish] backdrop remains constructive.”

Consensus builds on $200,000 BTC price target

Adding to Bitwise’s outlook, a May 28 analysis by Stockmoney Lizards highlights a bullish Bitcoin breakout indicator.

The signal comes from the Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT), which triggered for the first time since mid-2024, suggesting Bitcoin will potentially reach $200,000 in 2025, with a possible extension to $250,000.

Last month, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told Cointelegraph that the BTC price will hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by a supply shock from surging institutional demand.

A “power law” model that has accurately called Bitcoin tops and bottoms in the past cycles further hints at BTC price hitting $200,000 by year’s end.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.