Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price remains a critical support amid market volatility
The Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price is the average price at which short-term holders — those holding Bitcoin (BTC) for less than 155 days — acquired their coins.
This metric is a key indicator of market sentiment and price stability, as it reflects the cost basis of a group more likely to sell during volatility. By analyzing its behavior, we can assess its role as a support level, understand historical patterns when Bitcoin’s price drops below it, and project its implications for 2025.
The STH realized price consistently serves as a dynamic support level for Bitcoin. When the market price approaches or briefly falls below this threshold, it often rebounds, as short-term holders hesitate to sell at a loss while buying interest emerges. The short-term holder realized price has historically trended upwards. In the past year, it grew from $40,000 in January 2024 to $92,800 in February 2025.
Bitcoin’s price is volatile and has fluctuated towards the STH realized price. Dips below the STH realized price signaled either a local or a market bottom, depending on the time spent below the level. This pattern suggests that the STH realized price is a floor where selling pressure eases and buyers step in.
Historically, drops below the STH realized price have marked significant market shifts. In early 2022, Bitcoin’s price fell below the STH realized price, then around $30,000, triggering a decline to below $20,000 as short-term holders sold off. This event aligned with a broader market downturn, amplifying selling pressure. Similarly, in mid-2021, a drop below the STH realized price near $40,000 led to volatility and a bear market, reflecting short-term holder exits. However, these breaches often precede recoveries.
For instance, in early 2021, Bitcoin dipped below the STH realized price near $30,000, only to surge past $60,000 soon after, as long-term holders accumulated amid reduced selling. The data reinforces this: after falling below $20,000 in mid-2022 alongside the STH realized price, Bitcoin rebounded to $30,000 by early 2023, indicating that such levels attract buyers once panic subsides.
Despite Bitcoin’s significant volatility in 2025, it never dropped below the STH realized price. This shows that it remains a robust support level, with short-term holders holding steady unless external factors — like regulatory changes or economic shifts—prompt sales.
In the next several months, maintaining a price above the STH realized price could sustain the bullish momentum, especially with favorable conditions like institutional adoption through ETFs and strategic reserves.
A dip below the STH realized price would spark capitulation among the cohort, particularly if regulatory or macroeconomic pressures mount. However, historical recoveries show that any corrections would be short-lived, with accumulation likely to follow. The gap between Bitcoin’s price and the STH realized price provides a buffer, but a sharp drop below this support could test short-term holder resilience.
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