Impact on Bitcoin and Crypto Trading

Several US economic indicators are in the lineup this week, with the potential to affect the portfolios of crypto traders and investors. Bitcoin (BTC), in particular, may be positioned for volatility even as it teases with further gains.

Investors looking to take advantage of the expected volatility can front-run the following US economic data. 

US Economic Indicators To Watch This Week

Cryptocurrency investors will monitor US economic indicators this week for clues about market sentiment, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and the broader economic environment. The following US economic indicators will interest crypto market participants this week. 

Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to 86.0 in April 2025, a 7.9-point drop from March. This marked its lowest level since October 2011 and the fifth consecutive monthly decline. 

“Consumer Confidence is currently the second lowest since records began in 1952! The best analogue I can find is Q2 1982, where we have a similar shape on the oscillator and a second dip in confidence. This time, that second print is significantly deeper. Extraordinary that Bitcoin is at ATH, but not so extraordinary that no one cares,” Bitcoin analyst Decode stated in a post. 

Similarly, the Expectations Index, reflecting short-term outlooks for income, business, and labor markets, fell sharply to 54.4. As this was well below the 80 threshold, it signaled recession risks. 

According to data on MarketWatch, the median forecast is 86.0. However, consumers express growing concerns about future business conditions, employment prospects, and income. 

Specifically, 32.1% anticipate fewer jobs in the next six months, a level unseen since the Great Recession. Tariff fears and rising prices also continue to be key drivers of prevailing pessimism.

This erosion of confidence suggests a reduced risk appetite for crypto investors. Pessimistic consumers are less likely to invest in speculative assets like Bitcoin, favoring safer options like bonds or cash. 

However, prolonged economic uncertainty could bolster Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against inflation or market instability. Crypto markets may see short-term pressure but could benefit from a flight to decentralized assets if recession fears intensify.

FOMC Minutes

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release minutes from its May meeting. This adds to the list of US economic indicators to watch. Recent reports have indicated a cautious approach to monetary policy. 

The Fed emphasized monitoring inflation closely, with some projecting only two rate cuts for 2025. Key citations include persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs and fiscal policies.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments reinforced this hawkish tone, noting the economy’s resilience but highlighting risks from trade policies. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 94.3% probability of a pause in rate changes at the June 2025 meeting, down from earlier expectations of more aggressive cuts.

For crypto, a tighter monetary policy strengthens the US dollar, often pressuring risk assets like Bitcoin. The hawkish outlook remains a potential cap on crypto’s upside potential, given that higher interest rates make yield-bearing assets more attractive. 

Traders should brace for volatility around the minutes of the Fed’s May FOMC meeting, which are due on Wednesday, May 28. Remarks around this US economic indicator could trigger price movements in the Bitcoin price.

Initial Jobless Claims

Another US economic indicator to watch is the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 24. 

In the week before that, ending May 17, the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance dropped to 227,000. This marked a slight drop, down from 229,000 the prior week. Continuing claims reached 1.903 million, a 36,000 increase, signaling a gradual labor market slowdown. 

Notwithstanding, the median forecast is 228,000, which points to a softening labor market characterized by gradual weakening in job conditions, characterized by signs of rising unemployment or slower job growth. 

It signals a possible economic slowdown or uncertainty. Notably, a softening labor market could dampen crypto sentiment, as rising unemployment may reduce disposable income for speculative investments. 

However, the current stability provides some support for risk assets. If claims surge unexpectedly, crypto prices could face downward pressure, as investors may shift to safer havens.

PCE

The PCE Price Index for April 2025, due on May 30, 2025, is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, down from 2.3% in March. Meanwhile, the core PCE (excluding food and energy) is projected to remain at 2.6%. 

March data showed a monthly PCE decrease of less than 0.1%, with core PCE up 0.1%. This reflected cautious consumer spending and a personal savings rate of 3.9%. 

The upcoming report will be critical, as the Fed closely monitors PCE for inflation trends.

Stable or lower-than-expected PCE figures could support expectations of modest rate cuts, boosting crypto markets by weakening the dollar. 

However, a higher-than-expected reading could heighten inflation fears, strengthening the dollar and pressuring crypto prices. 

Crypto traders should remain vigilant, particularly for the May 30 PCE report and June FOMC meeting. Volatility is likely, and a balanced approach, where traders monitor both macroeconomic signals and crypto-specific catalysts, will be key.

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $109,640, up by a modest 1.35% in the last 24 hours.