Is Bitcoin Ready for Quantum Computing? Experts Weigh In

Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, has raised the alarm over the looming threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin (BTC). He has warned that the danger is greater than many realize.

Thorn emphasized that while a quantum attack would affect all forms of public key cryptography and, by extension, all cryptocurrencies, the potential solutions to safeguard Bitcoin are not the best, yet.

How is Quantum Computing a Threat to Bitcoin?

For context, quantum computing threatens Bitcoin by potentially breaking its cryptographic security. This includes elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) and hash functions like SHA-256. Quantum computers could derive private keys from public ones, enabling unauthorized access. 

While quantum-resistant cryptography is being developed, the timeline for a fully secure solution remains uncertain. Despite this, not everyone is convinced of the effectiveness of solutions to protect Bitcoin.

“Quantum is a bigger threat than people realize, and the options to fix it for Bitcoin specifically are worse than people realize,” Thorn posted.

When asked about a potential timeline for the emergence of this threat, Thorn acknowledged that no one truly knows, making it one of the most challenging questions in the field.

“This is a ‘national security’ level question,” he claimed.

Thorn suggested that by the time it happens, it will already be too late to respond. His latest concerns resonated with many.

Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, reaffirmed his earlier position. He noted that Bitcoin, like any technology, has the potential for vulnerabilities that could emerge with time and advancements.

“There’s a non-zero chance Bitcoin could be hacked. If it can be created, it can be destroyed,” Geraci added.

Furthermore, some have taken a stronger stance, forecasting that quantum computing could lead to Bitcoin’s eventual decline. 

“Right time to invest in Bitcoin was before 2020. I am heavily researching on the next Bitcoin-like asset,” analyst Nishant Bhardwaj remarked.

Meanwhile, these worries have intensified due to recent developments in quantum technology. Chirag Jetani, Founder and COO at Diamante, recently highlighted that Google’s quantum computers now operate 241 million times faster than conventional computers.

“A quantum computer with just 4,000 qubits could crack Bitcoin’s encryption in 10 minutes. By 2030, they’ll crack Bitcoin’s encryption in seconds,” he said.

Jetani also suggests that, despite quantum computing’s risks, it offers tremendous opportunities. He outlined five ways it will transform blockchain by 2030. 

• Quantum-Resistant Cryptography: This involves developing encryption that is secure against quantum computers. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is working on this.
• Quantum-Enhanced Smart Contracts: Quantum computing could enable smarter, real-time adapting contracts for faster, autonomous decisions.
• Quantum Random Number Generation: Blockchain could use quantum randomness for secure voting, fair gambling, and tamper-proof processes.
• Quantum-Secure Identity Systems: Quantum computing could ensure unhackable digital identities, protecting personal data and privacy.
• Quantum-Powered DeFi: Quantum computing could improve DeFi with instant payments, advanced financial modeling, and real-time risk assessment.

“You need to start moving your assets to quantum-resistant systems now. Because by 2030, it’ll be too late,” Jetani cautioned.

Will Bitcoin Survive Quantum Computing?

Despite the warnings, some remain hopeful. Previously, Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, predicted that quantum computing isn’t likely to pose a meaningful threat to Bitcoin’s cryptography anytime soon. He believes that quantum-resistant addresses will be added to Bitcoin in time, well before any serious risk arises.

Project 11, a quantum computing research firm, also stressed that quantum computers posing an actual threat to proof of work is not expected for at least 10 years. According to the firm, while Bitcoin is vulnerable to future quantum computing advances, it has the potential to evolve and survive through technological upgrades and adaptations.

“BTC can absolutely survive quantum computing. It will be difficult, controversial, and debated, but the network can be upgraded in time. The last significant fork was Taproot – post-quantum cryptography is next,” the firm explained.

In their X thread, Project 11 pointed to the development of quantum-resistant algorithms to protect against attacks. It highlighted that the NIST has drafted several standards, including lattice and hash-based ones. 

Moreover, the firm noted that multiple libraries are available to implement Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC). Yet, signature sizes, transactions per second (TPS), and block size can pose challenges.

The firm also clarified that while quantum computers may not instantly steal Bitcoin, the first capable systems could still be enough to compromise private keys over time. 

“Bitcoin’s security and validity rests on current cryptography, which Shor’s algorithm breaks. Even a slow QC can stockpile private keys, and its existence alone could spark an exodus,” the post read.

As time passes, Bitcoin’s survival hinges on its ability to evolve swiftly in response to quantum advancements. It needs to balance innovation while preserving its decentralized ethos.