Quiet mempool and flat volume could mean limited fuel for Bitcoin’s breakout above $100k
With Bitcoin attempting to break the crucial $95,000 to $96,000 threshold, it faces significant headwinds rooted in an increasingly dormant on-chain environment.
Although the price has hovered optimistically close to the critical $100,000 barrier, stagnant blockchain activity metrics show certain vulnerabilities that could hinder further upside.
According to data from Checkonchain, daily on-chain transfer volume remains near the $10 billion mark, aligning almost perfectly with its 365-day mean. This is a clear indication that transactional demand remains tepid.
Sharp increases in on-chain throughput marked previous bullish phases, but the current scenario reflects minimal fresh transactional activity, effectively capping potential momentum.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s mempool (the main indicator of transaction backlog and network demand) has been shallow, sustaining only about three to four blocks’ worth of pending transactions. This contrasts starkly with historical breakout periods, where the mempool swelled significantly amid heightened transactional urgency.
Active address metrics corroborate the lethargy seen in on-chain volume and transaction counts. In the past 30 days, daily active addresses averaged around 930,000, with recent fluctuations marking multi-month lows dipping occasionally below 800,000, a departure from the activity typically associated with bullish enthusiasm.
Without an uptick in new or returning user interactions, Bitcoin is increasingly dependent on existing holders to drive the market upward. This dependency often translates into weaker buying pressure, particularly at significant resistance levels where profit-taking from stale holders may dominate.
Bitcoin’s velocity, which shows the rate at which coins change hands, seems to compound these pressures. Data from CryptoQuant shows velocity remains stagnant around 13.0, showing that coins are moving through the Bitcoin ecosystem more slowly.
Moreover, the investor sentiment backdrop provides limited comfort. Although roughly 400,000 BTC recently transitioned into long-term holder (LTH) status in the past month, suggesting a tightening supply, this shift is double-edged. Historically, significant movements into LTH status coincide with phases of market inertia rather than explosive growth as investors brace for prolonged sideways movements.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cost-basis of $93,500 almost perfectly mirrors the current spot price, adding further technical and psychological weight. This price alignment amplifies the risk of forming a technical lower-high scenario on the weekly charts, particularly if bid support fails to materialize decisively in the next few weeks.
Exchange inflow data offers additional cautionary signals, averaging approximately 32,700 BTC daily over the last month. These numbers represent neither panic selling nor aggressive accumulation: they reflect a neutral and disinterested market.
This middle-ground sentiment most likely won’t provide sufficient fuel to propel Bitcoin past resistance clusters near $100,000, where approximately 15% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply currently resides in unrealized losses, ready to offload at break-even points.
Previous episodes of muted activity have typically led to market frustration, culminating in sudden downside corrections or extended periods of price stasis, both of which are demoralizing for bullish investors hoping for rapid ascents.
Bitcoin will likely escape this inertia when transfer volume, ETF turnover, and active addresses spike in tandem. Increased velocity and mempool depth, followed by increased movement in the derivatives market, would certainly bolster confidence.
Derivatives themselves have seen sharp spikes and drops in activity in the past month, indicating volatile speculative fervor, but weren’t enough to keep BTC above $95,000. But without all these signals materializing together, the likelihood increases that Bitcoin might succumb to a lower-high formation on the weekly chart that could push it back to as low as $86,000.
The current state of transactional inertia acts as a barrier to Bitcoin’s immediate upside potential. Unless significant on-chain activity resumes, the market’s aspirations of surpassing and sustaining Bitcoin’s price above $100,000 may remain out of reach in the short term.
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