The Fed Will Not Save Us This Year
Let’s be clear… There are no emergency rate cuts coming.
The economy is way too strong. So if you’re betting on a Fed pivot to bail out your portfolio… don’t.
Why do I say that? Because the data says it.
The market says it. Even bonds say it.
“Higher for longer” isn’t a theory anymore. It’s the base case.
Fed Funds Futures are now pricing in a near 100% chance the Fed pauses in June.
Not only that… there’s a 65% chance we only get two cuts all year. That’s it. That’s the story.
Not because inflation is spiraling out of control (thank goodness). But because the economy simply doesn’t need rate cuts.
People are spending. The consumer is holding up. There’s no hard landing to fix.
Q1 GDP dipped, but that was just frontloaded imports ahead of tariff hikes. Q2?
The Atlanta Fed is now forecasting +3.8% QoQ growth.
That’s not just resilience… that’s strength. Why would the Fed stimulate into that?
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It’d be like handing more candy to kids already bouncing off the walls.
So what do we do? We stay with long-term risk assets. We buy the dips. We don’t let fear dictate strategy.
That doesn’t mean we won’t see corrections. But if the crowd starts panicking about recession again?
Fade it. That’s exactly what we did on April 9, at the bottom.
We loaded up on $HOOD… and even took a swing at $ROBN, the REX Shares 2x levered Robinhood ETF.
That trade worked. And it worked because we ignored the noise and trusted the data.
So stay sharp. Be cautious. Manage your risk.
But don’t wait for the Fed to save you. Because this year, they won’t.
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