US Bitcoin reserve ups volatility, futures recoil

Bitcoin’s volatility reached new highs and futures prices recoiled after US President Donald Trump’s order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States drew ambivalent reactions from traders, market data shows. 

Experts said the market’s response indicates disappointment among traders who hoped for a more aggressive plan to buy Bitcoin (BTC) with federal funds and uncertainty about the longer-term impacts of Trump’s announcement. 

“The executive order did not meet market expectations because it failed to announce any new purchases, which many had hoped for,” said Theodore Agranat, Gunzilla Games’ director of Web3.

“Instead, it focused solely on using confiscated tokens. Additionally, everything about the order had already been priced in ahead of time, leaving no surprises for the market.”

Related: Bitcoin forgets strategic reserve ‘sell the news event’ with 4% bounce

Executive order

On March 6, Trump signed an executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and, separately, a US Digital Asset Stockpile to hold other cryptocurrencies. 

They will both initially comprise assets acquired by law enforcement and other legal proceedings. 

The order does not instruct the federal government to buy Bitcoin. Instead, it asks officials to “develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided that those strategies impose no incremental costs on American taxpayers.”

Additionally, the order clarifies that the federal government will not acquire any other cryptocurrencies. 

“The market appears disappointed by this,” Katalin Tischhauser, Sygnum’s research head, told Cointelegraph on March 7. 

However, “this is based on a lack of understanding of what constitutional powers the US president has,” Tischhauser said, adding that a “reserve where the US government buys Bitcoin can only be authorized by the legislature.”

Muted response

Traders’ initial response was muted. Bitcoin’s spot price dropped about 2% on March 7, according to data from TradingView. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 24-hour average true range (ATR) — a measure of volatility — broke 5,000 for the first time this cycle. It hovered around 3,000 as recently as February. 

In addition, Bitcoin futures recoiled. Data from the CME, the US’s largest derivative exchange, shows declines of about 2% across most of Bitcoin’s forward curve, which comprises futures contracts expiring at staggered dates. 

Futures are standardized contracts representing an agreement to buy or sell an asset at a particular future date.

The CME’s July 2025 Bitcoin futures price dropped by more than 4%, indicating a bearish turn for medium-term sentiment. 

The executive order’s “longer-term effects depend on the reserve’s size, the specific cryptocurrencies included and how it is managed,” Syracuse University professor Cristiano Bellavitis told Cointelegraph.

“It’s unclear if or how much the US government would invest in crypto. If it were in the billions, the price impact could be substantial.”

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