XRP whale activity surges with Fed policy and China tensions in focus

• Whale addresses now hold 9.44% of XRP supply, up from 8.24% in January.
• FedWatch Tool shows expectations for interest rates to remain at 4.25%-4.5%.
• RSI below 50 signals bearish momentum and possible downside pressure.

Ripple’s XRP token is holding steady at $2.14 despite a significant slowdown in trading volume and increasing caution across the wider crypto market.

Source: CoinMarketCap

The token’s price consolidation comes as investors await the US Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision and watch closely for developments in upcoming trade talks between the US and China.

On-chain data suggests that large investors are continuing to accumulate XRP, with wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million tokens increasing their holdings by 1.2% since January.

This rise in so-called whale activity is helping to maintain a floor at the $2.10 support level, even as momentum indicators such as the RSI point to growing trader uncertainty.

The broader crypto market is similarly rangebound, with Bitcoin fluctuating between $94,000 and $96,000 ahead of the Fed’s policy statement and key diplomatic meetings set to take place in Switzerland this weekend.

Fed expected to keep rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, most market participants anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged.

The current range of 4.25% to 4.5% reflects the central bank’s cautious stance amid ongoing global economic volatility, particularly stemming from trade policy and geopolitical tension.

K33 Research’s latest weekly report notes that the Fed’s conservative approach is being driven in part by uncertainty over tariffs and broader macroeconomic concerns.

These macroeconomic headwinds are weighing on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have absorbed over 50,000 BTC since April 21, yet Bitcoin has struggled to maintain upward momentum beyond $97,000, underscoring the broader market’s hesitancy.

XRP’s own muted performance in recent days reflects similar indecision, with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate above the $2.10 level.

Trade tensions push XRP into consolidation

XRP’s current price movement reflects more than just domestic economic uncertainty. International trade disputes have intensified after the US placed new restrictions on chip exports to China.

Specifically, NVIDIA’s advanced H20 processors were barred from shipment, prompting China to retaliate by halting exports of rare earth materials to the US.

These tit-for-tat actions have destabilised sentiment and triggered panic across global markets in April.

In response to this escalating trade war, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed a planned meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland.

Scheduled for this weekend, the meeting is expected to focus on resolving some of the key tariff barriers and opening channels for improved bilateral trade.

Market analysts suggest that progress in these talks could reduce volatility and improve sentiment for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies.

XRP price faces resistance at $2.20

XRP continues to trade within a tight range between its 200-day exponential moving average at $1.99 and a dual resistance level formed by the 50-day and 100-day EMAs around $2.20.

A long-term descending trendline dating back to January adds further pressure on bullish traders attempting to break past the upper resistance zone.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the neutral 50 level, indicating that bearish momentum may be strengthening. This shift in sentiment raises the possibility of losses below $2.10.

Should the $1.99 support break, traders may look to lower levels at $1.80 or even $1.61—the latter being the low recorded on April 7—for signs of a reversal.

Despite these technical headwinds, whale wallets are quietly increasing their holdings.

According to Santiment data, addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP now control 9.44% of the total supply, up from 8.24% at the start of the year.

This trend could serve as a stabilising force as investors navigate short-term volatility ahead of the Fed’s decision and international trade negotiations.